Gartner’s latest Hype Cycle has a distinct AI flavour, highlighting the technology’s importance over the next decade.
Of the 30 emerging technologies featured in Gartner’s latest Hype Cycle, nine are directly related to artificial intelligence:
- Generative adversarial networks
- Adaptive machine learning
- Composite AI
- Generative AI
- Responsible AI
- AI-augmented development
- Embedded AI
- Explainable AI
- AI-augmented design
Most of the AI technologies are currently in the initial “Innovation Trigger” part of the Hype Cycle, where excitement builds the fastest.
Responsible AI, AI-augmented development, embedded AI, and explainable AI, have all now reached the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and will next move into the dreaded “Trough of Disillusionment” as disappointment sets in over what can realistically be achieved.
Only after the trough, which none of the AI technologies have yet reached, do we head into the areas of the Hype Cycle where adoption occurs with realistic expectations and the productivity rewards are reaped.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle covers the next decade. The current placings of most of the AI technologies on the Hype Cycle indicates that Gartner believes it won’t be until towards the end of the decade we’ll see the most benefits.
Brian Burke, VP of research at Gartner, comments:
“Emerging technologies are disruptive by nature, but the competitive advantage they provide is not yet well known or proven in the market. Most will take more than five years, and some more than 10 years, to reach the Plateau of Productivity.
But some technologies on the Hype Cycle will mature in the near term and technology innovation leaders must understand the opportunities for these technologies, particularly those with transformational or high impact.”
Two technologies which Gartner expects to fast-track through the Hype Cycle are health passports and social distancing technologies, due to their necessity amid the COVID-19 pandemic.